作者
Michael A Johansson, Karyn M Apfeldorf, Scott Dobson, Jason Devita, Anna L Buczak, Benjamin Baugher, Linda J Moniz, Thomas Bagley, Steven M Babin, Erhan Guven, Teresa K Yamana, Jeffrey Shaman, Terry Moschou, Nick Lothian, Aaron Lane, Grant Osborne, Gao Jiang, Logan C Brooks, David C Farrow, Sangwon Hyun, Ryan J Tibshirani, Roni Rosenfeld, Justin Lessler, Nicholas G Reich, Derek AT Cummings, Stephen A Lauer, Sean M Moore, Hannah E Clapham, Rachel Lowe, Trevor C Bailey, Markel García-Díez, Marilia Sá Carvalho, Xavier Rodó, Tridip Sardar, Richard Paul, Evan L Ray, Krzysztof Sakrejda, Alexandria C Brown, Xi Meng, Osonde Osoba, Raffaele Vardavas, David Manheim, Melinda Moore, Dhananjai M Rao, Travis C Porco, Sarah Ackley, Fengchen Liu, Lee Worden, Matteo Convertino, Yang Liu, Abraham Reddy, Eloy Ortiz, Jorge Rivero, Humberto Brito, Alicia Juarrero, Leah R Johnson, Robert B Gramacy, Jeremy M Cohen, Erin A Mordecai, Courtney C Murdock, Jason R Rohr, Sadie J Ryan, Anna M Stewart-Ibarra, Daniel P Weikel, Antarpreet Jutla, Rakibul Khan, Marissa Poultney, Rita R Colwell, Brenda Rivera-García, Christopher M Barker, Jesse E Bell, Matthew Biggerstaff, David Swerdlow, Luis Mier-y-Teran-Romero, Brett M Forshey, Juli Trtanj, Jason Asher, Matt Clay, Harold S Margolis, Andrew M Hebbeler, Dylan George, Jean-Paul Chretien
发表日期
2019/11/26
期刊
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
卷号
116
期号
48
页码范围
24268-24274
出版商
National Academy of Sciences
简介
A wide range of research has promised new tools for forecasting infectious disease dynamics, but little of that research is currently being applied in practice, because tools do not address key public health needs, do not produce probabilistic forecasts, have not been evaluated on external data, or do not provide sufficient forecast skill to be useful. We developed an open collaborative forecasting challenge to assess probabilistic forecasts for seasonal epidemics of dengue, a major global public health problem. Sixteen teams used a variety of methods and data to generate forecasts for 3 epidemiological targets (peak incidence, the week of the peak, and total incidence) over 8 dengue seasons in Iquitos, Peru and San Juan, Puerto Rico. Forecast skill was highly variable across teams and targets. While numerous forecasts showed high skill for midseason situational awareness, early season skill was low, and skill was …
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