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There is a growing interest in understanding and forecasting the responses of plant communities to projected changes of environmental conditions. Multi-stage demographic approaches, where plant recruitment is explored across multiple and consecutive stages, are essential to obtain a whole overview of the consequences of increasing aridity on tree recruitment and forest dynamics, but they are still rarely used. In this study, we present the results of an experimental rainfall exclusion aimed to evaluate the impact of projected increasing drought on multiple stage-specific probabilities of recruitment in a key tree species typical of late-successional Mediterranean woodlands (Quercus ilex L.). We calibrated linear and nonlinear likelihood models for the different demographic processes and calculated overall probabilities of recruitment along a wide range of microhabitat conditions. Rainfall exclusion altered Q. ilex …