查看文章

OBJECTIVE. Movie smoking exposure is a strong predictor of smoking initiation by adolescents; however, we do not know whether it is a long-term predictor of established smoking. We conducted a prospective study to determine whether movie smoking exposure during early adolescence predicts established smoking in older teens and young adults.

DESIGN. We assessed movie smoking exposure and smoking status through a written school-based survey in 1999, when participants were 10 to 14 years of age. We enrolled 73% (n = 2603) of those who had never tried smoking in a follow-up study. In 2006–2007, we conducted telephone interviews with 69% (n = 1791) of the cohort to ascertain current smoking status. The primary outcome was established smoking, defined as having smoked >100 cigarettes. Mean age at follow-up was 18.7 years.

RESULTS. Thirteen percent (n = 235) progressed from never …