作者
Paul J Birrell, Georgios Ketsetzis, Nigel J Gay, Ben S Cooper, Anne M Presanis, Ross J Harris, André Charlett, Xu-Sheng Zhang, Peter J White, Richard G Pebody, Daniela De Angelis
发表日期
2011/11/8
期刊
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
卷号
108
期号
45
页码范围
18238-18243
出版商
National Academy of Sciences
简介
The tracking and projection of emerging epidemics is hindered by the disconnect between apparent epidemic dynamics, discernible from noisy and incomplete surveillance data, and the underlying, imperfectly observed, system. Behavior changes compound this, altering both true dynamics and reporting patterns, particularly for diseases with nonspecific symptoms, such as influenza. We disentangle these effects to unravel the hidden dynamics of the 2009 influenza A/H1N1pdm pandemic in London, where surveillance suggests an unusual dominant peak in the summer. We embed an age-structured model into a Bayesian synthesis of multiple evidence sources to reveal substantial changes in contact patterns and health-seeking behavior throughout the epidemic, uncovering two similar infection waves, despite large differences in the reported levels of disease. We show how this approach, which allows for real …
引用总数
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学术搜索中的文章
PJ Birrell, G Ketsetzis, NJ Gay, BS Cooper… - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2011