作者
Tahvi D Frank, Austin Carter, Deepa Jahagirdar, Molly H Biehl, Dirk Douwes-Schultz, Samantha Leigh Larson, Megha Arora, Laura Dwyer-Lindgren, Krista M Steuben, Hedayat Abbastabar, Laith Jamal Abu-Raddad, Direslgne Misker Abyu, Maryam Adabi, Oladimeji M Adebayo, Victor Adekanmbi, Olatunji O Adetokunboh, Alireza Ahmadi, Keivan Ahmadi, Elham Ahmadian, Ehsan Ahmadpour, Muktar Beshir Ahmed, Chalachew Genet Akal, Fares Alahdab, Noore Alam, Samuel B Albertson, Birhan Tamene T Alemnew, Kefyalew Addis Alene, Vahid Alipour, Nelson Alvis-Guzman, Saeed Amini, Zohreh Anbari, Nahla Hamed Anber, Mina Anjomshoa, Carl Abelardo T Antonio, Jalal Arabloo, Olatunde Aremu, Habtamu Abera Areri, Ephrem Tsegay Asfaw, Alebachew Fasil Ashagre, Daniel Asmelash, Anemaw A Asrat, Euripide FGA Avokpaho, Ashish Awasthi, Nefsu Awoke, Martin Amogre Ayanore, Samad Azari, Alaa Badawi, Mojtaba Bagherzadeh, Maciej Banach, Aleksandra Barac, Till Winfried Bärnighausen, Sanjay Basu, Neeraj Bedi, Masoud Behzadifar, Bayu Begashaw Bekele, Saba Abraham Belay, Yared Belete Belay, Yaschilal Muche Belayneh, Adugnaw Berhane, Anusha Ganapati Bhat, Krittika Bhattacharyya, Belete Biadgo, Ali Bijani, Muhammad Shahdaat Bin Sayeed, Helen Bitew, Andrew Blinov, Kassawmar Angaw Bogale, Hunduma Amensisa Bojia, Sharath BN Burugina Nagaraja, Zahid A Butt, Lucero Cahuana-Hurtado, Julio Cesar Campuzano Rincon, Félix Carvalho, Vijay Kumar Chattu, Devasahayam J Christopher, Dinh-Toi Chu, Raquel Crider, Tukur Dahiru, Lalit Dandona, Rakhi Dandona, Ahmad Daryani, José das Neves, Jan-Walter De Neve, Louisa Degenhardt, Feleke Mekonnen Demeke, Asmamaw Bizuneh Demis, Dereje Bayissa Demissie, Gebre Teklemariam Demoz, Kebede Deribe, Don Des Jarlais, Govinda Prasad Dhungana, Daniel Diaz, Shirin Djalalinia, Huyen Phuc Do, Linh Phuong Doan, Herbert Duber, Manisha Dubey, Eleonora Dubljanin, Eyasu Ejeta Duken, Bereket Duko Adema, Andem Effiong, Aziz Eftekhari, Maysaa El Sayed Zaki, Shaimaa I El-Jaafary, Ziad El-Khatib, Aisha Elsharkawy, Aman Yesuf Endries, Sharareh Eskandarieh, Oghenowede Eyawo, Farshad Farzadfar, Batool Fatima, Netsanet Fentahun, Eduarda Fernandes, Irina Filip, Florian Fischer, Morenike Oluwatoyin Folayan, Masoud Foroutan, Takeshi Fukumoto, Nancy Fullman, Alberto L Garcia-Basteiro, Reta Tsegaye Gayesa, Ketema Bizuwork Gebremedhin, Gebreamlak Gebremedhn Gebremedhn Gebremeskel, Kelali Kalaye Gebreyohannes, Getnet Azeze Gedefaw, Belayneh K Gelaw, Hailay Abrha Gesesew, Birhanu Geta, Kebede Embaye Gezae, Keyghobad Ghadiri, Ahmad Ghashghaee, Themba TG Ginindza, Harish Chander Gugnani, Rafael Alves Guimarães, Michael Tamene Haile, Gessessew Bugssa Hailu, Arvin Haj-Mirzaian, Arya Haj-Mirzaian, Samer Hamidi, Senad Handanagic, Demelash Woldeyohannes Handiso, Lolemo Kelbiso Hanfore, Amir Hasanzadeh, Hadi Hassankhani, Hamid Yimam Hassen, Simon I Hay, Andualem Henok, Chi Linh Hoang, H Dean Hosgood, Mehdi Hosseinzadeh
发表日期
2019/12/1
期刊
The Lancet HIV
卷号
6
期号
12
页码范围
e831-e859
出版商
Elsevier
简介
Background
Understanding the patterns of HIV/AIDS epidemics is crucial to tracking and monitoring the progress of prevention and control efforts in countries. We provide a comprehensive assessment of the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, mortality, and coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for 1980–2017 and forecast these estimates to 2030 for 195 countries and territories.
Methods
We determined a modelling strategy for each country on the basis of the availability and quality of data. For countries and territories with data from population-based seroprevalence surveys or antenatal care clinics, we estimated prevalence and incidence using an open-source version of the Estimation and Projection Package—a natural history model originally developed by the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling, and Projections. For countries with cause-specific vital registration data, we …
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TD Frank, A Carter, D Jahagirdar, MH Biehl… - The lancet HIV, 2019