查看文章

Incorporating intraspecific variation into species responses can improve our understanding of the effects of climate change. However, most studies overlook such variation or model intraspecific groups independently, leading to widely varying estimates at the species level. In this study, we used a generalized additive framework to model the climate responses of 25 bird species in the tropical Andes, allowing for the estimation of nonlinear responses between subspecies. We measured the effects of environmental covariates (climate, topography, and primary productivity) on relative abundances and projected population trends for near‐future (2050) scenarios. Compared with models that ignored subspecies, the subspecies‐level models performed better in terms of accuracy, discrimination, and goodness‐of‐fit, while projecting fewer species to decline in relative abundance. Thus, species could be more resilient …