作者
Joeri Rogelj, Alexander Popp, Katherine V Calvin, Gunnar Luderer, Johannes Emmerling, David Gernaat, Shinichiro Fujimori, Jessica Strefler, Tomoko Hasegawa, Giacomo Marangoni, Volker Krey, Elmar Kriegler, Keywan Riahi, Detlef P Van Vuuren, Jonathan Doelman, Laurent Drouet, Jae Edmonds, Oliver Fricko, Mathijs Harmsen, Petr Havlík, Florian Humpenöder, Elke Stehfest, Massimo Tavoni
发表日期
2018/4
期刊
Nature climate change
卷号
8
期号
4
页码范围
325-332
出版商
Nature Publishing Group UK
简介
The 2015 Paris Agreement calls for countries to pursue efforts to limit global-mean temperature rise to 1.5 °C. The transition pathways that can meet such a target have not, however, been extensively explored. Here we describe scenarios that limit end-of-century radiative forcing to 1.9 W m−2, and consequently restrict median warming in the year 2100 to below 1.5 °C. We use six integrated assessment models and a simple climate model, under different socio-economic, technological and resource assumptions from five Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). Some, but not all, SSPs are amenable to pathways to 1.5 °C. Successful 1.9 W m−2 scenarios are characterized by a rapid shift away from traditional fossil-fuel use towards large-scale low-carbon energy supplies, reduced energy use, and carbon-dioxide removal. However, 1.9 W m−2 scenarios could not be achieved in several models under …
引用总数
201820192020202120222023202458123152223249236137
学术搜索中的文章
J Rogelj, A Popp, KV Calvin, G Luderer, J Emmerling… - Nature climate change, 2018