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Outcome expectancies have been identified as key components of behavior change. Expectancies related to affect control are hypothesized to play an important role in smoking cessation, such that smokers may be more likely to lapse if they believe they can control their affect by smoking and less likely if they believe they can control their affect by means other than smoking. However, little is known about whether real-time, real-world changes in affect control expectancies influence smoking lapse during a quit attempt.

A diverse sample (N = 369) of adult smokers completed ecological momentary assessment of smoking expectancies and lapse for 28 days following a quit attempt. Multilevel logistic regression was used to examine whether the difference score of positive smoking outcome expectancies (the belief that smoking would improve mood) minus positive coping outcome expectancies (the …