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Long-term exposure to ambient air pollution, in particular fine particles or PM_2·5, is a leading global disease burden. PM_2·5 in the UK, dominated by agricultural emissions of ammonia (NH₃), has been estimated to be responsible for 29 000–34 000 adult early deaths a year. These estimates use models that relate exposure to health risk that predate cohort studies that have identified a supralinear relationship between exposure and risk at relatively low PM_2·5 concentrations typical of the UK (5–12 mg m⁻³). Here we used this new knowledge to estimate adult premature mortality in the UK in 2019.

For this modelling study, we used the GEOS-Chem model nested over the UK to simulate ambient PM_2·5 concentrations, UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) health data provided by the Global Burden of Disease (GBD), and a hybrid health-risk assessment model. The hybrid model fuses a well …