作者
Vollset Stein Emil, Hazim S Ababneh, Yohannes Habtegiorgis Abate, Cristiana Abbafati, Rouzbeh Abbasgholizadeh, Mohammadreza Abbasian, Hedayat Abbastabar, Abdallah HA Abd Al Magied, Samar Abd ElHafeez, Atef Abdelkader, Michael Abdelmasseh, Sherief Abd-Elsalam, Parsa Abdi, Mohammad Abdollahi, Meriem Abdoun, Auwal Abdullahi, Mesfin Abebe, Olumide Abiodun, Richard Gyan Aboagye, Hassan Abolhassani, Mohamed Abouzid, Girma Beressa Aboye, Lucas Guimarães Abreu, Abdorrahim Absalan, Hasan Abualruz, Bilyaminu Abubakar, Hana Jihad Jihad Abukhadijah, Giovanni Addolorato, Victor Adekanmbi, Charles Oluwaseun Adetunji, Juliana Bunmi Adetunji, Temitayo Esther Adeyeoluwa, Rishan Adha, Ripon Kumar Adhikary, Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani, Leticia Akua Adzigbli, Fatemeh Afrashteh, Muhammad Sohail Afzal, Saira Afzal, Faith Agbozo, Antonella Agodi, Anurag Agrawal, Williams Agyemang-Duah, Bright Opoku Ahinkorah, Austin J Ahlstrom, Aqeel Ahmad, Firdos Ahmad, Muayyad M Ahmad, Sajjad Ahmad, Shahzaib Ahmad, Anisuddin Ahmed, Ayman Ahmed, Haroon Ahmed, Safoora Ahmed, Syed Anees Ahmed, Karolina Akinosoglou, Mohammed Ahmed Akkaif, Ashley E Akrami, Ema Akter, Salah Al Awaidy, Syed Mahfuz Al Hasan, Amjad S Al Mosa, Al Ta'ani, Omar Ali Mohammed Al Zaabi, Fares Alahdab, Muaaz M Alajlani, Yazan Al-Ajlouni, Samer O Alalalmeh, Ziyad Al-Aly, Khurshid Alam, Noore Alam, Tahiya Alam, Zufishan Alam, Rasmieh Mustafa Al-amer, Fahad Mashhour Alanezi, Turki M Alanzi, Almaza Albakri, Wafa A Aldhaleei, Robert W Aldridge, Seyedeh Yasaman Alemohammad, Yihun Mulugeta Alemu, Adel Ali Saeed Al-Gheethi, Mohammed Khaled Al-Hanawi, Abid Ali, Amjad Ali, Iman Ali, Mohammed Usman Ali, Rafat Ali, Syed Shujait Shujait Ali, Victor Ekoche Ali, Waad Ali, Akram Al-Ibraheem, Gianfranco Alicandro, Sheikh Mohammad Alif, Syed Mohamed Aljunid, François Alla, Joseph Uy Almazan, Hesham M Al-Mekhlafi, Ahmed Yaseen Alqutaibi, Ahmad Alrawashdeh, Sahel Majed Alrousan, Salman Khalifah Al-Sabah, Mohammed A Alsabri, Zaid Altaany, Ala'a B Al-Tammemi, Jaffar A Al-Tawfiq, Khalid A Altirkawi, Deborah Oyine Aluh, Nelson Alvis-Guzman, Mohammad Sami Al-Wardat, Yaser Mohammed Al-Worafi, Hany Aly, Mohammad Sharif Alyahya, Karem H Alzoubi, Walid Al-Zyoud, Reza Amani, Edward Kwabena Ameyaw, Tarek Tawfik Amin, Alireza Amindarolzarbi, Sohrab Amiri, Mohammad Hosein Amirzade-Iranaq, Hubert Amu, Dickson A Amugsi, Robert Ancuceanu, Deanna Anderlini, David B Anderson, Pedro Prata Andrade, Catalina Liliana Andrei, Tudorel Andrei, Erick Adrian Andrews, Abhishek Anil, Sneha Anil, Amir Anoushiravani, Catherine M Antony, Ernoiz Antriyandarti, Boluwatife Stephen Anuoluwa, Saeid Anvari, Anayochukwu Edward Anyasodor, Francis Appiah, Michele Aquilano, Juan Pablo Arab, Jalal Arabloo, Elshaimaa A Arafa, Mosab Arafat, Aleksandr Y Aravkin, Ali Ardekani, Demelash Areda, Brhane Berhe Aregawi, Abdulfatai Aremu, Hany Ariffin
发表日期
2024/5/24
出版商
Elsevier
简介
BackgroundFuture trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050. MethodsUsing forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These …
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