作者
Dilip K Patro, Yangru Wu
发表日期
2004/9/1
期刊
Journal of Empirical Finance
卷号
11
期号
4
页码范围
553-584
出版商
North-Holland
简介
This paper examines the predictability of equity index returns for 18 developed countries. Based on the variance ratio test, the random walk hypothesis can be rejected at conventional significance levels for 11 countries with daily data and for 15 countries with weekly data. Monthly indices may well be characterized as a random walk for the majority of countries. The excess returns from buying past winners and selling past losers are positive and particularly striking for daily data, where they are not only statistically significant but also economically important in the absence of transaction costs. Imposing a reasonable transaction cost substantially reduces the profitability.
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