作者
Peter CB Phillips, Yangru Wu, Jun Yu
发表日期
2011/2
期刊
International economic review
卷号
52
期号
1
页码范围
201-226
出版商
Blackwell Publishing Inc
简介
A recursive test procedure is suggested that provides a mechanism for testing explosive behavior, date stamping the origination and collapse of economic exuberance, and providing valid confidence intervals for explosive growth rates. The method involves the recursive implementation of a right‐side unit root test and a sup test, both of which are easy to use in practical applications, and some new limit theory for mildly explosive processes. The test procedure is shown to have discriminatory power in detecting periodically collapsing bubbles, thereby overcoming a weakness in earlier applications of unit root tests for economic bubbles. An empirical application to the Nasdaq stock price index in the 1990s provides confirmation of explosiveness and date stamps the origination of financial exuberance to mid‐1995, prior to the famous remark in December 1996 by Alan Greenspan about irrational exuberance in the …
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