作者
Paul Thompson, Yuzhi Cai, Dominic Reeve, Julian Stander
发表日期
2009/10/1
期刊
Coastal Engineering
卷号
56
期号
10
页码范围
1013-1021
出版商
Elsevier
简介
The study of the extreme values of a variable such as wave height is very important in flood risk assessment and coastal design. Often values above a sufficiently large threshold can be modelled using the Generalized Pareto Distribution, the parameters of which are estimated using maximum likelihood. There are several popular empirical techniques for choosing a suitable threshold, but these require the subjective interpretation of plots by the user. In this paper we present a pragmatic automated, simple and computationally inexpensive threshold selection method based on the distribution of the difference of parameter estimates when the threshold is changed, and apply it to a published rainfall and a new wave height data set. We assess the effect of the uncertainty associated with our threshold selection technique on return level estimation by using the bootstrap procedure. We illustrate the effectiveness of our …
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