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The aim of this study was to understand factors that influence the prediction of uncertain spatial trajectories (e.g., the future path of a hurricane or ship) and the role of human overconfidence in such prediction.

Research has indicated that human prediction of uncertain trajectories is difficult and may well be subject to overconfidence in the accuracy of forecasts as is found in event prediction, a finding that indicates that humans insufficiently appreciate the contributions of variance in nature to their predictions.

In two experiments, our paradigm required participants to observe a starting point, a position at time T, and then make a prediction of the location of the trajectory at time NT. They experienced several trajectories from the same underlying model but perturbed by random variance in heading and speed.

In Experiment 1A, people predicted linear paths well and were better in …