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The BODE index (including body-mass index, airflow obstruction, dyspnoea, and exercise capacity) was an important contribution to the prognostic assessment of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). However, no study has assessed whether the risk of mortality predicted by the BODE index matches the observed mortality in different populations. We assessed the calibration of the BODE index, updated it to improve its calibration, and developed and validated a simplified index for use in primary-care settings.

We included 232 patients from the Swiss Barmelweid cohort with longstanding and severe COPD and 342 patients from the Spanish Phenotype and Course of COPD cohort study who had had their first hospital admission due to moderate-to-severe COPD. In both cohorts we compared the observed 3-year risk of all-cause mortality with the risk predicted by the …