作者
Suani Tavares Rubim de Pinho, Claudia P Ferreira, Lourdes Esteva, Florisneide Rodrigues Barreto, VC Morato e Silva, MGL Teixeira
发表日期
2010/12/28
期刊
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences
卷号
368
期号
1933
页码范围
5679-5693
出版商
The Royal Society Publishing
简介
In this work, we use a mathematical model for dengue transmission with the aim of analysing and comparing two dengue epidemics that occurred in Salvador, Brazil, in 1995–1996 and 2002. Using real data, we obtain the force of infection, Λ, and the basic reproductive number, R0, for both epidemics. We also obtain the time evolution of the effective reproduction number, R(t), which results in a very suitable measure to compare the patterns of both epidemics. Based on the analysis of the behaviour of R0 and R(t) in relation to the adult mosquito control parameter of the model, we show that the control applied only to the adult stage of the mosquito population is not sufficient to stop dengue transmission, emphasizing the importance of applying the control to the aquatic phase of the mosquito.
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学术搜索中的文章
STR Pinho, CP Ferreira, L Esteva, FR Barreto… - Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A …, 2010