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Pregnant women with a previous Caesarean section face making the decision to undergo an elective repeat Caesarean section or to attempt a trial of labour with the goal of achieving a vaginal birth after Caesarean (VBAC). One of the key factors in counselling these women is the probability of a successful VBAC. We aimed to validate a prediction model for VBAC success.

We performed an analysis of women at term with one prior low-transverse Caesarean section and a live cephalic singleton pregnancy who attempted a trial of labour after Caesarean (TOLAC) at 32 hospitals in Quebec between 2008 and 2012. The individual TOLAC probabilities of success were calculated without regard to ethnicity, using a prediction model previously developed in the United States. The predictive ability of the model was assessed using receiver operating characteristic curves and the area under the curve …