作者
Karen Flórez‐Lozano, Edgar Navarro‐Lechuga, Humberto Llinás‐Solano, Rafael Tuesca‐Molina, Augusto Sisa‐Camargo, Marcela Mercado‐Reyes, Martha Ospina‐Martínez, Franklyn Prieto‐Alvarado, Jorge Acosta‐Reyes
发表日期
2020/1
期刊
International Journal of Gynecology & Obstetrics
卷号
148
页码范围
55-60
简介
Objective
To determine the spatial distribution of the risk of Zika virus disease in each region of Colombia during the 2015–2016 epidemic.
Methods
An ecological study was designed to estimate the risks for each Colombian region using first‐order neighbors, covariate effects, and three adjacent periods of time (beginning, development, and end of the epidemic) to analyze the spatial distribution of the disease based on a Bayesian hierarchical model.
Results
Spatial distribution of the estimated risks of Zika virus disease showed that it increased in a strip that crosses the central area of the country from west to east. Analysis of the three time periods showed greater risk of the disease in the central and southern zones—Arauca and Santander—where the increase in risk was four times higher during the peak phase compared with the initial phase of the outbreak.
Conclusion
In the identified high‐risk areas …
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