作者
Hasnat Ahmad, Ingrid Van Der Mei, Bruce V Taylor, Robyn M Lucas, Anne-Louise Ponsonby, Jeannette Lechner-Scott, Keith Dear, Patricia Valery, Philip M Clarke, Steve Simpson, Andrew J Palmer
发表日期
2019/11
期刊
Multiple Sclerosis Journal
卷号
25
期号
13
页码范围
1800-1808
出版商
Sage Publications
简介
Background
Transition probabilities are the engine within many health economics decision models. However, the probabilities of progression of disability due to multiple sclerosis (MS) have not previously been estimated in Australia.
Objectives
To estimate annual probabilities of changing disability levels in Australians with relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS).
Methods
Combining data from Ausimmune/Ausimmune Longitudinal (2003–2011) and Tasmanian MS Longitudinal (2002–2005) studies (n = 330), annual transition probabilities were obtained between no/mild (Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) levels 0–3.5), moderate (EDSS 4–6.0) and severe (EDSS 6.5–9.5) disability.
Results
From no/mild disability, 6.4% (95% confidence interval (CI): 4.7–8.4) and 0.1% (0.0–0.2) progressed to moderate and severe disability annually, respectively. From moderate disability, 6.9% (1.0–11.4) improved (to no/mild state …
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H Ahmad, I Van Der Mei, BV Taylor, RM Lucas… - Multiple Sclerosis Journal, 2019