作者
Damaris Zurell, Catherine H Graham, Laure Gallien, Wilfried Thuiller, Niklaus E Zimmermann
发表日期
2018/10/22
期刊
Nature Climate Change
卷号
8
页码范围
992-996
出版商
Nature Publishing Group
简介
Many species migrate long distances annually between their breeding and wintering areas. Although global change affects both ranges, impact assessments have generally focused on breeding ranges and ignored how environmental changes influence migrants across geographical regions and the annual cycle,. Using range maps and species distribution models, we quantified the risk of summer and winter range loss and migration distance increase from future climate and land cover changes on long-distance migratory birds of the Holarctic (n = 715). Risk estimates are largely independent of each other and magnitudes vary geographically. If seasonal range losses and increased migration distances are not considered, we strongly underestimate the number of threatened species by 18–49% and the overall magnitude of risk for 17–50% species. Many of the analysed species that face multiple global change …
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