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Funding for human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination in Japan began in 2010 for girls aged 12–16 years, with three-dose coverage initially reaching more than 70%. On June 14, 2013, 2 months after formal inclusion in Japan's national immunisation programme, proactive recommendations for the HPV vaccine were suspended following reports of adverse events since found to be unrelated to vaccination, but which were extensively covered in the media. Vaccine coverage subsequently dropped to less than 1% and has remained this low to date. We aimed to quantify the impact of this vaccine hesitancy crisis, and the potential health gains if coverage can be restored.

In this modelling study, we used the Policy1-Cervix modelling platform. We adapted the model for Japan with use of data on HPV prevalence, screening practices and coverage, and cervical cancer incidence and mortality. We …