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Coral bleaching events, predicted to increase in frequency and severity as a result of climate change, are a threat to tropical coral‐reef ecosystems worldwide. Although the onset of spatially extensive, or ‘mass’, bleaching events can be predicted using simple temperature stress metrics, no models are available for predicting coral mortality risk or sub‐lethal stress associated with bleaching. Here, we develop a model that links the functional response of colony energy balance and energy‐store dynamics to coral mortality risk and recovery during and following bleaching events.

In a series of simulations using response functions and parameter values derived from experimental studies for two Indo‐Pacific coral species (Acropora intermedia and Montipora monasteriata), we demonstrate that prior energy‐costly disturbances and alternative energy sources are both important determinants of coral mortality risk …