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BackgroundResearch on the long-term course of major depressive disorder (MDD) is hindered by the absence of established course criteria and by idiosyncratic definitions of chronicity. The aims of this study were to derive an empirical index of MDD course, to examine its predictive validity, and to identify the adulthood outcomes associated with a chronic course.MethodIndicators for a MDD course factor were rationally selected and subjected to principal components (PCA) and confirmatory factor analyses (CFA) among 426 subjects with a lifetime history of MDD by age 30. Scores on the index prior to age 19 were examined as predictors of course from age 19 to 30. Associations between the index and outcomes of interest at age 30 were examined.ResultsThree indicators loaded highly on a chronic course index and displayed adequate internal consistency: early onset age, number of episodes, and duration of ill …