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Many European Union (EU) stakeholders expect electrofuels to have a prominent role in the EU’s energy future. Also known as “power-to-liquids,”“power-to-gas,”“e-fuels” and “e-gas,” electrofuels can deliver greenhouse gas (GHG) savings compared to petroleum when they are produced using low-carbon electricity. These alternative fuels are increasingly cited as a promising solution for achieving decarbonization of the transport sector because they can be used in internal combustion engines and, unlike most types of biofuels, have low land use impacts. Electrofuels will be incentivized by the recast Renewable Energy Directive (RED II) for 2021–2030 and automaker associations and other stakeholders are advocating for the GHG savings from electrofuels to also count toward vehicle CO2 standards.

In a prior study (Christensen & Petrenko, 2017), we assessed the economics and GHG performance of electrofuel facilities in EU Member States from the present to 2040. This paper represents an update to that study, focusing on 2030 and introducing a number of changes to improve the relevance of this work for ongoing policy analysis. Our updated economic analysis for electrofuels uses a new, transparent renewable electricity price forecast for all EU Member States. We add a gaseous electrofuels pathway and assess its competitiveness with fossil gas, as well as explore the economics of using direct air capture to supply CO2 to electrofuel producers instead of industrial point sources. We analyze how the accounting of electrofuels in the final RED II impacts the GHG performance of these fuels and provide policy recommendations for maximizing …