作者
John F Benson, Peter J Mahoney, Jeff A Sikich, Laurel EK Serieys, John P Pollinger, Holly B Ernest, Seth PD Riley
发表日期
2016/8/31
期刊
Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
卷号
283
期号
1837
页码范围
20160957
出版商
The Royal Society
简介
The extinction vortex is a theoretical model describing the process by which extinction risk is elevated in small, isolated populations owing to interactions between environmental, demographic, and genetic factors. However, empirical demonstrations of these interactions have been elusive. We modelled the dynamics of a small mountain lion population isolated by anthropogenic barriers in greater Los Angeles, California, to evaluate the influence of demographic, genetic, and landscape factors on extinction probability. The population exhibited strong survival and reproduction, and the model predicted stable median population growth and a 15% probability of extinction over 50 years in the absence of inbreeding depression. However, our model also predicted the population will lose 40–57% of its heterozygosity in 50 years. When we reduced demographic parameters proportional to reductions documented in …
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