作者
Lumbwe Chola, Shelley McGee, Aviva Tugendhaft, Eckhart Buchmann, Karen Hofman
发表日期
2015/6/15
期刊
PloS one
卷号
10
期号
6
页码范围
e0130077
出版商
Public Library of Science
简介
Introduction Family planning contributes significantly to the prevention of maternal and child mortality. However, many women still do not use modern contraception and the numbers of unintended pregnancies, abortions and subsequent deaths are high. In this paper, we estimate the service delivery costs of scaling up modern contraception, and the potential impact on maternal, newborn and child survival in South Africa. Methods The Family Planning model in Spectrum was used to project the impact of modern contraception on pregnancies, abortions and births in South Africa (2015-2030). The contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR) was increased annually by 0.68 percentage points. The Lives Saved Tool was used to estimate maternal and child deaths, with coverage of essential maternal and child health interventions increasing by 5% annually. A scenario analysis was done to test impacts when: the change in CPR was 0.1% annually; and intervention coverage increased linearly to 99% in 2030. Results If CPR increased by 0.68% annually, the number of pregnancies would reduce from 1.3 million in 2014 to one million in 2030. Unintended pregnancies, abortions and births decrease by approximately 20%. Family planning can avert approximately 7,000 newborn and child and 600 maternal deaths. The total annual costs of providing modern contraception in 2030 are estimated to be US 33millionandthecostperuserofmoderncontraceptionisUS 7 per year. The incremental cost per life year gained is US 40forchildrenandUS 1,000 for mothers. Conclusion Maternal and child mortality remain high in South Africa, and scaling up family planning …
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