查看文章

The Stevens Institute of Technology Flood Advisory System (SFAS) is the evolution of public coastal ocean forecasts from Stevens that have grown since the inception of forecasts for the New York Harbor Observing and Prediction System (NYHOPS) in 2006 (Bruno et al. 2006) and Storm Surge Warning System in 2010 (Georgas and Blumberg, 2010). It includes rainfall-driven hydrologic inputs, tides and storm surge. Ensemble total water level forecasts have been running since 2015 and are presently based upon 96 different meteorological forecasts, providing a central-estimate time series of water level with a 90% confidence interval (Georgas et al 2016; Jordi et al. 2019). Forecast graphics are posted with data access on the forecast webpage and interested users can sign up to be notified of impending flooding via email warnings.

As of late 2020, Stevens also provides probabilistic water level forecast data to the National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecast Offices at Upton and Mt. Holly. NWS has been using the Stevens Flood Advisory System as an important component of their storm forecast guidance development that serves the coastal New York, New Jersey and Connecticut region. They are now using the SFAS numeric forecast data in their Total Water Level forecast system to help inform their forecast guidance.