作者
Mahmoud Ayyad, Muhammad R Hajj, Reza Marsooli
发表日期
2021/10/1
期刊
Journal of Engineering Mechanics
卷号
147
期号
10
页码范围
04021070
出版商
American Society of Civil Engineers
简介
Mitigating losses from a storm surge requires an accurate prediction of its peak, duration, and current speed along the coastline. Because this prediction depends on varying atmospheric and oceanic conditions, the uncertainty of predicted values must also be evaluated. Sensitivity analysis can serve to assess how variations in storm parameters can impact the surge characteristics. Such analysis is usually performed by varying one of the parameters, e.g., central pressure, by a certain percentage while assuming all other parameters, e.g., radius of maximum wind and forward speed, constant. A more reliable sensitivity analysis can be obtained when performed together with stochastic analysis. Uncertainty quantification approaches that are based on polynomial approximations of the output values with respect to input parameters can be effectively implemented to provide output sensitivities to variations in input …
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