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Objectives To develop and validate a delirium prediction model for adult intensive care patients and determine its additional value compared with prediction by caregivers.

Design Observational multicentre study.

Setting Five intensive care units in the Netherlands (two university hospitals and three university affiliated teaching hospitals).

Participants 3056 intensive care patients aged 18 years or over.

Main outcome measure Development of delirium (defined as at least one positive delirium screening) during patients’ stay in intensive care.

Results The model was developed using 1613 consecutive intensive care patients in one hospital and temporally validated using 549 patients from the same hospital. For external validation, data were collected from 894 patients in four other hospitals. The prediction (PRE-DELIRIC) model contains 10 risk factors—age, APACHE-II score, admission group, coma, infection, metabolic …