Strokes attributed to atrial fibrillation (AF) represent a major cause of adult disability and a great burden to society and healthcare systems.

Our objective was to assess the cost effectiveness of apixaban, a direct acting oral anticoagulant (DOAC), versus warfarin or aspirin for patients with AF in the Greek healthcare setting.

We used a previously published Markov model to simulate clinical events for patients with AF treated with apixaban, the vitamin K antagonist (VKA) warfarin, or aspirin. Clinical events (ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke, intracranial hemorrhage, other major bleed, clinically relevant non-major bleed, myocardial infarction, and cardiovascular [CV] hospitalizations) were modeled using efficacy data from the ARISTOTLE and AVERROES clinical trials. The cohort’s baseline characteristics also sourced from these trials. Among VKA-suitable patients, 64.7% were men with a mean age of 70 years and average CHADS₂ (cardiac failure, hypertension, age, diabetes, stroke₂) score of 2.1, whereas 58.5% of VKA-unsuitable patients were men with a mean age of 70 years and a CHADS₂ score of 2.0. A panel of experts (cardiologists and internists) provided information on the resource use associated with the management of AF. Cost calculations reflect the local clinical setting and a third-party payer perspective (€, discounted at 3%).

Based on a simulation of 1000 VKA-suitable patients over a lifetime horizon, the use of apixaban versus warfarin resulted in 26 fewer strokes and systemic embolisms in total, 65 fewer bleeds, 41 fewer myocardial infarctions, and 29 fewer CV-related deaths, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of €14,478/quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). For VKA-unsuitable patients, apixaban versus aspirin resulted in 72 fewer strokes and systemic embolisms and 57 fewer CV-related deaths, with an ICER of €7104/QALY. Sensitivity analyses indicated that results were robust.

Based on the present analysis, apixaban represents a cost-effective treatment option versus warfarin and aspirin for the prevention of stroke in patients with AF from a Greek healthcare payer perspective over a lifetime horizon.