Google trends: a web-based tool for real-time surveillance of disease outbreaks

HA Carneiro, E Mylonakis - Clinical infectious diseases, 2009 - academic.oup.com
HA Carneiro, E Mylonakis
Clinical infectious diseases, 2009academic.oup.com
Abstract Google Flu Trends can detect regional outbreaks of influenza 7–10 days before
conventional Centers for Disease Control and Prevention surveillance systems. We describe
the Google Trends tool, explain how the data are processed, present examples, and discuss
its strengths and limitations. Google Trends shows great promise as a timely, robust, and
sensitive surveillance system. It is best used for surveillance of epidemics and diseases with
high prevalences and is currently better suited to track disease activity in developed …
Abstract
Google Flu Trends can detect regional outbreaks of influenza 7–10 days before conventional Centers for Disease Control and Prevention surveillance systems. We describe the Google Trends tool, explain how the data are processed, present examples, and discuss its strengths and limitations. Google Trends shows great promise as a timely, robust, and sensitive surveillance system. It is best used for surveillance of epidemics and diseases with high prevalences and is currently better suited to track disease activity in developed countries, because to be most effective, it requires large populations of Web search users. Spikes in search volume are currently hard to interpret but have the benefit of increasing vigilance. Google should work with public health care practitioners to develop specialized tools, using Google Flu Trends as a blueprint, to track infectious diseases. Suitable Web search query proxies for diseases need to be established for specialized tools or syndromic surveillance. This unique and innovative technology takes us one step closer to true real-time outbreak surveillance.
Oxford University Press
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