In order to facilitate targeted outreach, we sought to identify patient populations with a lower likelihood of returning for breast cancer screening after COVID-19-related imaging center closures.

Weekly total screening mammograms performed throughout 2019 (baseline year) and 2020 (COVID-19-impacted year) were compared. Demographic and clinical characteristics, including age, race, ethnicity, breast density, breast cancer history, insurance status, imaging facility type used, and need for interpreter, were compared between patients imaged from March 16 to October 31 in 2019 (baseline cohort) and 2020 (COVID-19-impacted cohort). Census data and an online map service were used to impute socioeconomic variables and calculate travel times for each patient. Logistic regression was used to identify patient characteristics associated with a lower likelihood of returning for screening after COVID-19-related closures.

The year-over-year cumulative difference in screening mammogram volumes peaked in week 21, with 2962 fewer exams in the COVID-19-impacted year. By week 47, this deficit had reduced by 49.4% to 1498. A lower likelihood of returning for screening after COVID-19-related closures was independently associated with younger age (odds ratio (OR) 0.78, p < 0.001), residence in a higher poverty area (OR 0.991, p = 0.014), lack of health insurance (OR 0.65, p = 0.007), need for an interpreter (OR 0.68, p = 0.029), longer travel time (OR 0.998, p < 0.001), and utilization of mobile mammography services (OR 0.27, p < 0.001).

Several patient factors are associated with a lower likelihood of returning for screening mammography after COVID-19-related closures. Knowledge of these factors can guide targeted outreach to vulnerable patients to facilitate breast cancer screening.