Insulin resistance is one of the risks of chronic kidney disease (CKD). The triglyceride–glucose index (TyG index) has been suggested as a marker of moderate insulin resistance. We aimed to investigate the association between TyG index and incident CKD.

In this historical cohort study of 11,712 participants (6026 men and 5686 women), we investigated the impact of TyG index on incident CKD. CKD was defined as estimated GFR less than 60 mL/min/1.73 m² and/or proteinuria detected by dipstick test in fasting morning urine. TyG index was calculated as ln [fasting triglycerides (mg/dL) × fasting plasma glucose (mg/dL)/2]. Cox proportional hazard models were performed to investigate the impact of TyG index on incident CKD, adjusting for age, BMI categories, waist circumference, smoking status, exercise, logarithm of alcohol consumption, systolic blood pressure, serum albumin, hemoglobin A1c, hyperuricemia, low HDL-cholesterol concentration, high LDL-cholesterol concentration, CRP, creatinine, and gamma-glutamyltransferase.

During the median 4.0-year follow-up duration for men and 3.7-year follow-up duration for women, 261 participants (120 men and 141 women) developed CKD. In Cox proportional hazard model, TyG index presented the significant risks for incident CKD in both men and women (men, hazard ratio 1.32, 95% confidence interval 1.02–1.70, p = 0.036, women, hazard ratio 1.50, 95% confidence interval 1.05–2.13, p = 0.024).

This study revealed that TyG index can be a predictor of incident CKD.