Targeting the uncertainty of predictions at patient-level using an ensemble of classifiers coupled with calibration methods, Venn-ABERS, and Conformal Predictors: a …

T Pereira, S Cardoso, M Guerreiro, SC Madeira… - Journal of biomedical …, 2020 - Elsevier
Despite being able to make accurate predictions, most existing prognostic models lack a
proper indication about the uncertainty of each prediction, that is, the risk of prediction error …

Calibrating predictive model estimates to support personalized medicine

X Jiang, M Osl, J Kim… - Journal of the American …, 2012 - academic.oup.com
Objective: Predictive models that generate individualized estimates for medically relevant
outcomes are playing increasing roles in clinical care and translational research. However …

Uncertainty estimations methods for a deep learning model to aid in clinical decision-making--a clinician's perspective

M Dohopolski, K Wang, B Wang, T Bai… - arXiv preprint arXiv …, 2022 - arxiv.org
Prediction uncertainty estimation has clinical significance as it can potentially quantify
prediction reliability. Clinicians may trust'blackbox'models more if robust reliability …

The index of prediction accuracy: an intuitive measure useful for evaluating risk prediction models

MW Kattan, TA Gerds - Diagnostic and prognostic research, 2018 - Springer
Background Many measures of prediction accuracy have been developed. However, the
most popular ones in typical medical outcome prediction settings require additional …

Identifying unreliable predictions in clinical risk models

PD Myers, K Ng, K Severson, U Kartoun, W Dai… - NPJ digital …, 2020 - nature.com
The ability to identify patients who are likely to have an adverse outcome is an essential
component of good clinical care. Therefore, predictive risk stratification models play an …

Calibration: the Achilles heel of predictive analytics

B Van Calster, DJ McLernon, M Van Smeden… - BMC medicine, 2019 - Springer
Background The assessment of calibration performance of risk prediction models based on
regression or more flexible machine learning algorithms receives little attention. Main text …

A calibration metric for risk scores with survival data

S Yadlowsky, S Basu, L Tian - Machine Learning for …, 2019 - proceedings.mlr.press
We study methods for assessing the degree of systematic over-or under-estimation, known
as calibration, of a learned risk model in an independent validation cohort. Here, we …

A patient-driven adaptive prediction technique to improve personalized risk estimation for clinical decision support

X Jiang, AA Boxwala, R El-Kareh, J Kim… - Journal of the …, 2012 - academic.oup.com
Objective Competing tools are available online to assess the risk of developing certain
conditions of interest, such as cardiovascular disease. While predictive models have been …

[HTML][HTML] Clinical prediction models: evaluation matters

HQ Gu, C Liu - Annals of Translational Medicine, 2020 - ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
Clinical prediction models, also known as “prognostic models”,“risk scores”, or “prediction
rules”, have received increasing attention in recent years (1, 2). Clinical prediction models …

Learning patient-level prediction models across multiple healthcare databases: evaluation of ensembles for increasing model transportability

JM Reps, RD Williams, MJ Schuemie, PB Ryan… - BMC medical informatics …, 2022 - Springer
Background Prognostic models that are accurate could help aid medical decision making.
Large observational databases often contain temporal medical data for large and diverse …