Diabetic kidney disease (DKD) lacks a simple and relatively accurate predictor. The Triglyceride–Glucose (TyG) Index is a proxy of insulin resistance, but the association between the TyG Index and DKD is less certain. We investigated if the TyG Index can predict DKD onset effectively.

Cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses were undertaken. In total, 1432 type-2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) patients were included in the cross-sectional analysis. The TyG Index (calculated by ln [fasting triglycerides (mg/dL) × fasting glucose (mg/dL)/2]) was split into three tertiles. Associations of the TyG Index with microalbuminuria and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) <60 mL/min/1.73 m² were calculated. Longitudinally, 424 patients without DKD at baseline were followed up for 21 (range, 12–24) months. The main outcome was DKD prevalence as defined with eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m² or continuously increased urinary microalbuminuria: creatinine ratio (>30 mg/mL) over 3 months. Cox regression was used to analyze the association between the TyG Index at baseline and DKD. Receiver operating characteristics curve (ROC) analysis was used to assess the sensitivity and specificity of the TyG Index in predicting DKD.

In cross-sectional analysis, patients with a higher TyG Index had a higher risk of microalbuminuria (OR = 2.342, 95% CI = 1.744–3.144, p < 0.001), and eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m² (1.696, 95% CI =1.096–2.625, p = 0.018). Longitudinally, 94 of 424 participants developed DKD. After confounder adjustment, patients in the high tertile of the TyG Index at baseline had a greater risk to developing DKD than those in the low tertile (HR = 1.727, 95% CI = 1.042–2.863, p = 0.034). The area under the ROC curve was 0.69 (0.63–0.76).

The TyG Index is a potential predictor for DKD in T2DM patients.

Clinical Trials identification number = NCT03692884.