What processes must we understand to forecast regional-scale population dynamics?
An urgent challenge facing biologists is predicting the regional-scale population dynamics of
species facing environmental change. Biologists suggest that we must move beyond …
species facing environmental change. Biologists suggest that we must move beyond …
Predicting population responses to environmental change from individual-level mechanisms: towards a standardized mechanistic approach
Animal populations will mediate the response of global biodiversity to environmental
changes. Population models are thus important tools for both understanding and predicting …
changes. Population models are thus important tools for both understanding and predicting …
The pitfalls of ecological forecasting
Ecological forecasting is difficult but essential, because reactive management results in
corrective actions that are often too late to avert significant environmental damage. Here, we …
corrective actions that are often too late to avert significant environmental damage. Here, we …
Community dynamics under environmental change: How can next generation mechanistic models improve projections of species distributions?
Environmental change is expected to shift the geographic range of species and
communities. To estimate the consequences of these shifts for the functioning and stability of …
communities. To estimate the consequences of these shifts for the functioning and stability of …
Predictability of ecological and evolutionary dynamics in a changing world
Ecological and evolutionary predictions are being increasingly employed to inform decision-
makers confronted with intensifying pressures on biodiversity. For these efforts to effectively …
makers confronted with intensifying pressures on biodiversity. For these efforts to effectively …
Predictive ecology: systems approaches
The world is experiencing significant, largely anthropogenically induced, environmental
change. This will impact on the biological world and we need to be able to forecast its …
change. This will impact on the biological world and we need to be able to forecast its …
Community dynamics and sensitivity to model structure: towards a probabilistic view of process-based model predictions
C Aldebert, DB Stouffer - Journal of the Royal Society …, 2018 - royalsocietypublishing.org
Statistical inference and mechanistic, process-based modelling represent two
philosophically different streams of research whose primary goal is to make predictions …
philosophically different streams of research whose primary goal is to make predictions …
Forecasting species range dynamics with process‐explicit models: matching methods to applications
Knowing where species occur is fundamental to many ecological and environmental
applications. Species distribution models (SDMs) are typically based on correlations …
applications. Species distribution models (SDMs) are typically based on correlations …
Pathways to global-change effects on biodiversity: new opportunities for dynamically forecasting demography and species interactions
In structured populations, persistence under environmental change may be particularly
threatened when abiotic factors simultaneously negatively affect survival and reproduction of …
threatened when abiotic factors simultaneously negatively affect survival and reproduction of …
Unravelling the dynamics of organisms in a changing world using ecological modelling
T Amano - Ecological research, 2012 - Springer
Understanding and predicting the dynamics of organisms is a central objective in ecology
and conservation biology, and modelling provides a solution to tackling this problem …
and conservation biology, and modelling provides a solution to tackling this problem …