… statistical testing model, and an SIR epidemic model, to improve estimation of mortality. We
find that the average excess death … the number of reported COVID-19 deaths. In some areas, …

… of excess deaths with the reported numbers of deaths due to … of these increases in relation
to testing and pandemic intensity. … , official statistics have become better aligned with excess …

… are affected by differences in reporting and testing. … of deaths due to COVID-19 and explain
why excess deaths vary, … -19 deaths, analyses from the Office for National Statistics have …

… In the case of epidemics, lack of comprehensive testing or reporting can lead … excess deaths
at time t as μ t f ( t ) and estimate these with μ ^ t f ^ ( t ) . We can then estimate excess deaths …

… toll: underdiagnosis of COVID-19 due to low availability of SARS-CoV-2 tests; indirect deaths
… Furthermore, the statistical methods used can estimate excess mortality in regions with …

… such as the COVID-19 death rate, the COVID-19 test positivity rate, aggregate containment
… available and for these we must rely on statistical models. Critically, the missing countries are …

… test. As mortality records are incomplete worldwide, we built a statistical model that predicted
the excess … the cause of death without a positive SARS-CoV-2 test, and thus deaths due to …

… over arbitrarily determined prior periods and used the specifications with the best fit among
the models tested to estimate baseline deaths. However, the plausibility of the resulting …

… are recognized and reported because of limitations in testing, exacerbation of chronic …
via either nationally notifiable disease reporting or vital statistics might underestimate the full …

… First, not everyone who dies from covid-19 is tested, especially in … excess deaths” by
comparing all deaths during the pandemic with a reference estimate, the number of expected deaths …