A New Risk Assessment Model for Construction Projects by Adopting a Best–Worst Method–Fuzzy Rule-Based System Coupled with a 3D Risk Matrix

HR Abed, HA Rashid - Iranian Journal of Science and Technology …, 2024 - Springer
HR Abed, HA Rashid
Iranian Journal of Science and Technology, Transactions of Civil Engineering, 2024Springer
Many organizations in developing countries have started to place a strong priority on risk
management in their business. Therefore, this article proposes a novel model that
incorporates organizational maturity as a new dimension in the risk evaluation of
construction projects. The research methodology uses a hybrid best–worst method–fuzzy
rule-based system (BWM-FRBS) combined with a 3D risk matrix to evaluate risks based on
the probability and mathematical equations generated for the impact and the organizational …
Abstract
Many organizations in developing countries have started to place a strong priority on risk management in their business. Therefore, this article proposes a novel model that incorporates organizational maturity as a new dimension in the risk evaluation of construction projects. The research methodology uses a hybrid best–worst method–fuzzy rule-based system (BWM-FRBS) combined with a 3D risk matrix to evaluate risks based on the probability and mathematical equations generated for the impact and the organizational maturity. After analyzing several research studies, the initial risk assessment structure was formed. A focus group session with 12 experts was carried out to confirm the final components of the model parameters. The component weights were calculated using the BWM technique. The impact and the organizational maturity equations were prepared. The outputs of the preceding equations and the probability of occurrence were then used as inputs to the FRBS model to determine the risk score. This model used a 3D risk matrix to construct fuzzy rules. Iraqi construction projects were used as a case study to confirm the validity of the integrated model. The authors concluded that this model is more effective and precise than conventional techniques for evaluating and prioritizing risk and can provide critical information for risk management.
Springer
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