The presence of code and design smells can have a severe impact on the quality of a program. Consequently, their detection and correction have drawn the attention of both researchers and practitioners who have proposed various approaches to detect code and design smells in programs. However, none of these approaches handle the inherent uncertainty of the detection process. We propose a Bayesian approach to manage this uncertainty. First, we present a systematic process to convert existing state-of-the-art detection rules into a probabilistic model. We illustrate this process by generating a model to detect occurrences of the Blob antipattern. Second, we present results of the validation of the model: we built this model on two open-source programs, GanttProject v1.10.2 and Xerces v2.7.0, and measured its accuracy. Third, we compare our model with another approach to show that it returns the same candidate classes while ordering them to minimise the quality analysts' effort. Finally, we show that when past detection results are available, our model can be calibrated using machine learning techniques to offer an improved, context-specific detection.