[HTML][HTML] A predictable AMO-like pattern in the GFDL fully coupled ensemble initialization and decadal forecasting system
Journal of Climate, 2013•journals.ametsoc.org
… (a) The spatial structure of the component that maximized the average predictability time
of SST in the decadal hindcasts, which is called the internal multidecadal pattern (IMP). (b)
The ensemble mean (black solid) and spread (gray shading) time series of the IMP as a
function of forecast lead time for the decadal hindcasts initialized on 1 Jan every 10 yr from
1965 to 2005, the time series for projecting the ERSST data onto IMP (red solid), and the
normalized AMO index (blue solid) from 1920 to 2010. (c) As in (b) but for hindcasts … (a) …
of SST in the decadal hindcasts, which is called the internal multidecadal pattern (IMP). (b)
The ensemble mean (black solid) and spread (gray shading) time series of the IMP as a
function of forecast lead time for the decadal hindcasts initialized on 1 Jan every 10 yr from
1965 to 2005, the time series for projecting the ERSST data onto IMP (red solid), and the
normalized AMO index (blue solid) from 1920 to 2010. (c) As in (b) but for hindcasts … (a) …
Blunier, T., and EJ Brook, 2001: Timing of millenial-scale climate change in Antarctica and Greenland during the last glacial period. Science, 291, 109–112, doi: 10.1126/science. 291.5501. 109.
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