Common and country specific economic uncertainty
H Mumtaz, K Theodoridis - Journal of International Economics, 2017 - Elsevier
H Mumtaz, K Theodoridis
Journal of International Economics, 2017•ElsevierWe use a factor model with stochastic volatility to decompose the time-varying variance of
macroeconomic and financial variables into contributions from country-specific uncertainty
and uncertainty common to all countries. We find that the common component plays an
important role in driving the time-varying volatility of nominal and financial variables. The
cross-country co-movement in volatility of real and financial variables has increased over
time with the common component becoming more important over the last decade …
macroeconomic and financial variables into contributions from country-specific uncertainty
and uncertainty common to all countries. We find that the common component plays an
important role in driving the time-varying volatility of nominal and financial variables. The
cross-country co-movement in volatility of real and financial variables has increased over
time with the common component becoming more important over the last decade …
Abstract
We use a factor model with stochastic volatility to decompose the time-varying variance of macroeconomic and financial variables into contributions from country-specific uncertainty and uncertainty common to all countries. We find that the common component plays an important role in driving the time-varying volatility of nominal and financial variables. The cross-country co-movement in volatility of real and financial variables has increased over time with the common component becoming more important over the last decade. Simulations from a two-country DSGE model featuring Epstein-Zin preferences suggest that increased globalisation and trade openness may be the driving force behind the increased cross-country correlation in volatility.
Elsevier
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