Deciphering spatio-temporal graph forecasting: A causal lens and treatment

Y Xia, Y Liang, H Wen, X Liu, K Wang… - Advances in …, 2024 - proceedings.neurips.cc
Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, 2024proceedings.neurips.cc
Abstract Spatio-Temporal Graph (STG) forecasting is a fundamental task in many real-world
applications. Spatio-Temporal Graph Neural Networks have emerged as the most popular
method for STG forecasting, but they often struggle with temporal out-of-distribution (OoD)
issues and dynamic spatial causation. In this paper, we propose a novel framework called
CaST to tackle these two challenges via causal treatments. Concretely, leveraging a causal
lens, we first build a structural causal model to decipher the data generation process of …
Abstract
Spatio-Temporal Graph (STG) forecasting is a fundamental task in many real-world applications. Spatio-Temporal Graph Neural Networks have emerged as the most popular method for STG forecasting, but they often struggle with temporal out-of-distribution (OoD) issues and dynamic spatial causation. In this paper, we propose a novel framework called CaST to tackle these two challenges via causal treatments. Concretely, leveraging a causal lens, we first build a structural causal model to decipher the data generation process of STGs. To handle the temporal OoD issue, we employ the back-door adjustment by a novel disentanglement block to separate the temporal environments from input data. Moreover, we utilize the front-door adjustment and adopt edge-level convolution to model the ripple effect of causation. Experiments results on three real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of CaST, which consistently outperforms existing methods with good interpretability. Our source code is available at https://github. com/yutong-xia/CaST.
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