Individual differences in susceptibility to developing asthma, a heterogeneous chronic inflammatory lung disease, are poorly understood. Whether genetics can predict asthma risk and how genetic variants modulate the complex pathophysiology of asthma are still debated.

To build polygenic risk scores for asthma risk prediction and epigenomically link predictive genetic variants to pathophysiological mechanisms.

Restricted polygenic risk scores were constructed using single nucleotide variants derived from genome-wide association studies and validated using data generated in the Rotterdam Study, a Dutch prospective cohort of 14 926 individuals. Outcomes used were asthma, childhood-onset asthma, adulthood-onset asthma, eosinophilic asthma and asthma exacerbations. Genome-wide chromatin analysis data from 19 disease-relevant cell types were used for epigenomic polygenic risk score partitioning.

The polygenic risk scores obtained predicted asthma and related outcomes, with the strongest associations observed for childhood-onset asthma (2.55 odds ratios per polygenic risk score standard deviation, area under the curve of 0.760). Polygenic risk scores allowed for the classification of individuals into high-risk and low-risk groups. Polygenic risk score partitioning using epigenomic profiles identified five clusters of variants within putative gene regulatory regions linked to specific asthma-relevant cells, genes and biological pathways.

Polygenic risk scores were associated with asthma(-related traits) in a Dutch prospective cohort, with substantially higher predictive power observed for childhood-onset than adult-onset asthma. Importantly, polygenic risk score variants could be epigenomically partitioned into clusters of regulatory variants with different pathophysiological association patterns and effect estimates, which likely represent distinct genetically driven disease pathways. Our findings have potential implications for personalised risk mitigation and treatment strategies.