We study the radiation-driven warping of accretion discs in the context of X-ray binaries. The latest evolutionary equations are adopted, which extend the classical alpha theory to time-dependent thin discs with non-linear warps. We also develop accurate, analytical expressions for the tidal torque and the radiation torque, including self-shadowing.

We investigate the possible non-linear dynamics of the system within the framework of bifurcation theory. First, we re-examine the stability of an initially flat disc to the Pringle instability. Then we compute directly the branches of non-linear solutions representing steadily precessing discs. Finally, we determine the stability of the non-linear solutions. Each problem involves only ordinary differential equations, allowing a rapid, accurate and well-resolved solution.

We find that radiation-driven warping is probably not a common occurrence in low-mass X-ray binaries. We also find that stable, steadily precessing discs exist for a narrow range of parameters close to the stability limit. This could explain why so few systems show clear, repeatable ‘superorbital’ variations. The best examples of such systems, Her X-1, SS 433 and LMC X-4, all lie close to the stability limit for a reasonable choice of parameters. Systems far from the stability limit, including Cyg X-2, Cen X-3 and SMC X-1, probably experience quasi-periodic or chaotic variability as first noticed recently by Wijers and Pringle. We show that radiation-driven warping provides a coherent and persuasive framework but that it does not provide a generic explanation for the long-term variabilities in all X-ray binaries.