Prediction markets
J Wolfers, E Zitzewitz - Journal of economic perspectives, 2004 - aeaweb.org
… prediction markets derives from the efficient markets hypothesis. In a truly efficient prediction
market, the market … be used to improve on the market-generated forecasts. This statement …
market, the market … be used to improve on the market-generated forecasts. This statement …
The promise of prediction markets
… that such markets can help to produce forecasts of event outcomes with a lower prediction
error than conventional forecasting methods. For example, prediction market prices can be …
error than conventional forecasting methods. For example, prediction market prices can be …
Prediction markets: An extended literature review
G Tziralis, I Tatsiopoulos - The journal of prediction markets, 2007 - ubplj.org
… This paper presents an attempt to study and monitor the evolution of research on prediction
markets (PM). It provides an extended literature review and classification scheme. The …
markets (PM). It provides an extended literature review and classification scheme. The …
Prediction markets in theory and practice
J Wolfers, E Zitzewitz - 2006 - nber.org
… market-aggregated forecasts. This article summarizes the recent literature on prediction
markets, … emphasize the possibility that these markets efficiently aggregate disperse information, …
markets, … emphasize the possibility that these markets efficiently aggregate disperse information, …
Prediction markets: A literature review 2014
CF Horn, BS Ivens, M Ohneberg… - … of Prediction Markets, 2014 - portal.findresearcher.sdu.dk
… of prediction markets. Today, after another seven years of academic prediction market
research, … of Journal of Prediction Markets to understand the further developments and trends in …
research, … of Journal of Prediction Markets to understand the further developments and trends in …
Using Prediction Markets to Track Information
… with prediction markets we are aware of. In this paper, we illustrate how markets can be
used to study how an organization processes information. We show that market participants are …
used to study how an organization processes information. We show that market participants are …
Prediction markets: Practical experiments in small markets and behaviours observed
JD Christiansen - The Journal of Prediction Markets, 2007 - ubplj.org
… This paper discusses a series of prediction markets created and operated in the … prediction
markets in a field with no established “experts” and with little popular attraction. Such a market …
markets in a field with no established “experts” and with little popular attraction. Such a market …
Prediction markets as decision support systems
… markets become decision support systems. We argue that both prediction and conditional
prediction markets … conditional decision markets: the IEM conditional prediction markets for the …
prediction markets … conditional decision markets: the IEM conditional prediction markets for the …
[图书][B] Prediction markets
E Servan-Schreiber - 2012 - books.google.com
… market themselves before he does, thereby erasing the profit opportunity. In a prediction
market, as in any financial market, … In this way, the prediction market provides incentives for both …
market, as in any financial market, … In this way, the prediction market provides incentives for both …
[PDF][PDF] The power of prediction markets
A Mann - Nature, 2016 - knowen-production.s3.amazonaws …
… Then the researchers set up a prediction market for each study, and gave the same … “I can
create a poll that can mimic everything about a prediction market,” he says. “Except markets …
create a poll that can mimic everything about a prediction market,” he says. “Except markets …