Using an ensemble of 28 climate models, we examine hindcasts and 'business as
usual'future changes to large-scale South Indian Ocean dynamics. We compare model
ensemble seasonal-to-annual volume transports to observations and explore drivers of past
and future circulation variability and change. Off the west coast of Australia, models
consistently project a weakening of the Leeuwin Current and Undercurrent due to reduced
onshore flow and downwelling. The reduced onshore flow is related to changes in the …