The number of new Covid-19 cases is still high in several countries, despite vaccination
efforts. A number of countries are experiencing new and severe waves of infection.
Therefore, the availability of reliable forecasts for the number of cases and deaths in the
coming days is of fundamental importance. We propose a simple statistical method for short-
term real-time forecasting of the number of Covid-19 cases and fatalities in countries that are
latecomers—ie, countries where cases of the disease started to appear some time after …