Storylines: an alternative approach to representing uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change
As climate change research becomes increasingly applied, the need for actionable
information is growing rapidly. A key aspect of this requirement is the representation of
uncertainties. The conventional approach to representing uncertainty in physical aspects of
climate change is probabilistic, based on ensembles of climate model simulations. In the
face of deep uncertainties, the known limitations of this approach are becoming increasingly
apparent. An alternative is thus emerging which may be called a 'storyline'approach. We …
information is growing rapidly. A key aspect of this requirement is the representation of
uncertainties. The conventional approach to representing uncertainty in physical aspects of
climate change is probabilistic, based on ensembles of climate model simulations. In the
face of deep uncertainties, the known limitations of this approach are becoming increasingly
apparent. An alternative is thus emerging which may be called a 'storyline'approach. We …
[PDF][PDF] Storylines: An alternative approach to representing uncertainty in physical 1 aspects of climate change 2
IM Dessaig, HJ Fowleri, R Jamesj, D Maraunl, B Tettp… - ldeo.columbia.edu
As climate-change research becomes increasingly applied, the need for actionable 67
information is growing rapidly. A key aspect of this requirement is the 68 representation of
uncertainties. The conventional approach to representing 69 uncertainty in physical aspects
of climate change is probabilistic, based on 70 ensembles of climate model simulations. In
the face of deep uncertainties, the 71 known limitations of this approach are becoming
increasingly apparent. An 72 alternative is thus emerging which may be called a …
information is growing rapidly. A key aspect of this requirement is the 68 representation of
uncertainties. The conventional approach to representing 69 uncertainty in physical aspects
of climate change is probabilistic, based on 70 ensembles of climate model simulations. In
the face of deep uncertainties, the 71 known limitations of this approach are becoming
increasingly apparent. An 72 alternative is thus emerging which may be called a …
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