[HTML][HTML] The NOAA/CIMSS ProbSevere model: Incorporation of total lightning and validation
JL Cintineo, MJ Pavolonis, JM Sieglaff… - Weather and …, 2018 - journals.ametsoc.org
Weather and Forecasting, 2018•journals.ametsoc.org
… An example of how storm-by-storm validation is performed in this study. The timeline for
this example shows the following: A, ProbSevere object = 94% valid at 0012 UTC; B, NWS
warning valid 0012–0100 UTC; C, NWS warning valid 0035–0100 UTC; D, NWS warning
valid 0054–0145 UTC; E, 2.5-in.-hail report at 0102 UTC; F, 60 mi h −1 wind report at 0115
UTC; and G, NWS warning valid 0120–0200 UTC. The hail report verifies the … (left)
ProbSevere skill scores for the entire validation as a function of forecast probability …
this example shows the following: A, ProbSevere object = 94% valid at 0012 UTC; B, NWS
warning valid 0012–0100 UTC; C, NWS warning valid 0035–0100 UTC; D, NWS warning
valid 0054–0145 UTC; E, 2.5-in.-hail report at 0102 UTC; F, 60 mi h −1 wind report at 0115
UTC; and G, NWS warning valid 0120–0200 UTC. The hail report verifies the … (left)
ProbSevere skill scores for the entire validation as a function of forecast probability …
Adler, RF, and DD Fenn, 1979: Thunderstorm intensity as determined from satellite data. J. Appl. Meteor., 18, 502–517, https://doi. org/10.1175/1520-0450 (1979) 018< 0502: TIADFS> 2.0. CO; 2.
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