We analyze the impact of Covid-19 on productivity using data from an innovative monthly
firm survey that asks for quantitative impacts of Covid-19 on inputs and outputs. We find that
total factor productivity (TFP) fell by up to 6% during 2020–2021. The overall impact
combined large reductions in 'within-firm'productivity, with offsetting positive 'between-
firm'effects as less productive sectors, and less productive firms within them, contracted.
Despite these large pandemic effects, firms' post-Covid forecasts imply surprisingly little …